What about Cop29?

COP29 Baku, Azerbaijan November 2024

Featured image © Marie Jacquemin / Greenpeace

World leaders gathered in Azerbaijan to discuss climate change goals at Cop29. (COP stands for UN Conference of the parties). The location – a fossil fuel producing country – has been controversial, while the election of Donald Trump raises questions about the United States’ commitment. But against that difficult background the importance of action has been underlined again by the terrible flooding in Spain and the recent Storm Bert plus the news that 2024 is on track to be the warmest year on record, 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The UN warned that the world was on course for a rise of up to 3.1°C without further cuts to emissions.

Not all world leaders attended. With the election of Trump and the absence of the leaders of the United States, China, Brazil, Germany and France at the conference, the presence of Keir Starmer was in important statement of intent. Politicians often find it easier to set targets than to deliver. But Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer gave a news conference on the second day of this climate summit, which ran for 2 weeks in November 2024. It ended 22 hours late with a deal in which rich countries promised to raise $300bn a year by 2035 tripling climate finance support for developing countries. However, many poorer countries were left outraged by the deal, and the financial settlement also failed to consider the effect of inflation. This is enough for us to sink into depression. It seems no one is taking climate change seriously.  But at the conclusion Greenpeace gave a positive message to us all:

Not all is lost though. The final outcome fell short of what was hoped for, and what is needed to battle the climate crisis. But the people power in Baku made its presence felt. Navigating tight guidelines and pushback on peaceful protest for a third year in a row, civil society got creative to still make its demands heard, and will return even more determined next year. The time for debate is over; decisive action is the demand of the hour.

Two very positive UK government inputs tell us the UK new government is taking this seriously, setting an example to other developed nations of the world. WAKE UP to the seriousness of this issue for us all. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer gave his news conference in Baku on the second day of COP29.  He has committed the UK to an ambitious target for 2035. He announced that the UK’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target will be to reduce emissions by at least 81% compared to 1990 levels by 2035, following advice from the UK’s independent advisory body the Climate Change Committee (CCC)**. See: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/committee-climate-change

The interim chair of the CCC said the new target was feasible and would support jobs and investment but that the UK was behind schedule when it came to delivering 2030 cuts of 68%, with further action needed to speed up deployment of electric vehicles, heat pumps alongside tree planting and peatland restoration. This is a clear message to our politicians and the public.

** Briefly: What is the Committee on Climate Change and when was it established? 

The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) was established in the 2008 Climate Change Act which also set the UK’s legally binding target on greenhouse gas emissions reductions. The initial target was to reduce emissions by 80% compare to 1990 levels; in 2018 Theresa May’s government increased that target to “net zero” by 2050. The CCC is an executive non-departmental public body, whose sponsor is the lead climate change mitigation department, currently the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (though the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs leads on adaptation issues).

Another positive input this last week was from Ed Miliband. He was also in Baku. But who is he? In 2020, Sir Keir Starmer appointed Miliband Shadow Secretary of State for Climate Change and Net Zero. Following Labour’s victory in this year’s 2024 general election, Miliband returned to government after being appointed Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero. He has a long interest in climate change. He wrote an excellent article this week see: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/25/transition-clean-energy-unstoppable-cop29

Some of his key messages are worth remembering in the months ahead:

• “Here’s what I learned at Cop29. Rows aside, an unstoppable transition to clean energy is happening. Britain wanted much better outcomes on many issues, but seeing the ambition at the conference gives me hope for the future
• The climate crisis is all around us. And the world is not moving nearly fast enough. In that context, the Cop process for climate negotiations feels frustratingly slow. Yet it is the best mechanism for multilateral action we have, so we have to use it to do everything we can to speed up action.
• The UK went to Cop29 determined to play its part in a successful negotiation because it is in our national interest. There is no national security without climate security. That is so clear from the effects of Storm Bert over the past   If we do not act, we can expect more and more of these extreme and devastating outcomes.
• The only way we keep the British people safe from extreme weather, economic disruption and the destruction of nature is to get the world to act. The previous government used the fact that the UK is responsible for about 1% of annual global emissions as an excuse for inaction. But given that climate impact knows no borders, our only hope of keeping the UK safe is to lead and work with other countries to ensure the other 99% of emissions are also addressed.
• By this standard, the 11th-hour deal reached at Cop29 is a step forward. The reality is there is no route to a stable climate without supporting developing countries to embrace the clean-energy revolution. The $300bn climate finance goal, trebling the current $100bn, will help poorer countries get the finance they need to decarbonise their economies and protect their populations.
• This deal could lead to emissions reductions that are the equivalent to removing the emissions of about 1bn cars, as well as helping to protect up to 1 billion people in developing countries from the effects of floods, heatwaves and droughts caused by the climate crisis.
• This deal will also help speed up the clean-energy transition globally, which is, crucially, right for Britain because of what it offers in terms of investment and economic opportunity, including exports. For us and others around the world, taking advantage of this transition is the route to good jobs, economic growth and higher living standards.
• The finance goal agreed also reflects a new global landscape where traditional donors will be joined by big emitters such as China to help fund the transition. That is a fair reflection of the world today.
• Of course, many developing countries facing the intensifying effects of the climate crisis and the need for development and investment in a low carbon transition, do not feel that this finance goal will address their requirements. This is understandable, but the outcome at Cop29 does represent an advance at a time of massive pressures on public finances. The finance goal, along with an agreement at Baku on carbon markets and the mobilisation of the private sector, are the essential elements for ensuring a roadmap to the $1.3tn of finance for developing countries set out in the Cop29 deal.
• While this Cop did make strides forward on finance, and that was always going to be its focus, it did not make the same progress elsewhere. In particular, the UK would have wanted to see a much stronger outcome on taking forward the global stocktake agreed at Cop28 on the transition away from fossil fuels and on keeping alive the commitment to keep the world’s temperature rise below 1.5C.
• Agreement on these issues was not reached because a number of developed and developing countries did not believe the Cop29 text was sufficiently ambitious. These countries, of which Britain was one, will not settle for lowest common denominator outcomes on decisions that define the future of humanity; this shows the broad coalition that exists for climate action in the global north and the global south.
• This alliance of high ambition is the world’s centre ground of climate politics and is the best hope for the future. In our work with Brazil, hosts of Cop30, we are seeking to demonstrate this in practice. Keir Starmer came to the Cop to announce a target for 2035 – 81% emissions reductions, which is ambitious and aligned with 1.5C – at the same time as Brazil announced its ambitious nationally determined contribution (NDC). The president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and Starmer then collaborated at the G20 (The Group of Twenty, an informal gathering of many of the world’s largest economies, is the premier global forum for discussing economic issues) on our new global clean power alliance and we will work closely and urgently with them on energy, finance and forests over the next 12 months in the run-up to Brazil’s Cop 30 in November 2025.
• The reality of Cops is that they offer multiple truths about the state of climate politics and the world. Some optimistic, others less so. Yet for me there is one that stands out. The clean-energy transition is happening and it is unstoppable because economic prosperity and tackling the climate crisis now point in the same direction.
• The task for Britain now is to accelerate at home, so we can seize the economic opportunity and work with others internationally to speed action globally. In less than five months in office, we have shown how we can galvanise a national mission to make us a clean-energy superpower. Internationally, this Cop showed Britain is back in the global climate leadership business. Whatever the challenges of these negotiations, the commitment of the UK government is to work with others to rise to the emergency we face. It is the leadership the British people deserve.”

So, come on Isle of Arran and its residents and visitors. What are we doing to help reach these important targets? North Ayrshire Council has also made its commitment. As we look to 2025, let’s put climate as our number one priority.

How much more clarity do we need? An excellent podcast by Emma Burlow Straight Talking Sustainability is available on line at Spotify or Apple. Join her as she talks with experts, share real-world stories, and tackles the common roadblocks that stop businesses from making progress. This helps clear up the confusion and focuses on practical, straightforward actions that stick. Here are the links!

• Spotify
• Apple

Sally Campbell

November 2024