Climate Change, Renewables and War

The shift to renewable energy is speeding up, because wars have unintended consequences. Russia’s war in Ukraine is speeding up the global energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables. This is good news for the climate, nature and indeed for us all. Even North Ayrshire Council is introducing more car electric charging points, encouraging insulation and renewable energy.

Three recent developments show not all is gloom and doom. Reported by The New York Times:

1. According to the International Energy Agency, an estimated $1.40 trillion (that’s approx. £1.13 trillion) was invested into “clean energy” projects in 2022, and that includes solar farms, batteries and electric vehicle stations. More than ever before and more even than into new gas and oil projects. All spurred on by the Russian invasion, “an accelerator for clean energy transitions”.
2. BloombergNEF (BNEF), a strategic research provider covering global commodity markets, in a report published last week, write that investments in low-carbon energy “reached parity” with capital aimed at expanding fossil fuels.
3. Finally, the oil giant BP thinks it expected the war would ramp up renewable energy projects for the sake of energy security, and that oil and gas demand would peak sooner than the company anticipated just a year ago

The shift away from fossil fuel is not however happening fast enough to deal with the size of present global warming. For that to happen the big emerging economies of Asia, Africa and Latin America will need more renewable energy projects with finance to assist that transition.

But since 2021, renewable projects have been ramped up, not just on climate grounds, but rather in the name of energy security. Renewables are increasingly affordable, once they are built, and they offer security as well.
In Europe, wind and solar accounted for 22 percent of electricity generation last year, overtaking for the first time the share of gas (20 percent) and coal (16 percent), according to Ember, a research firm.
“In 2023, Europe is set to witness a huge fall in fossil fuels — of coal power, but especially gas power,” said the Ember report, published recently. Globally, renewable energy installations grew by 25% in 2022 and China’s investments greatly exceeded that of every other country.

Especially in the industrialized world, many people are going electric. The electric car transition is in high gear. In 2022, nearly 15% of new cars globally were electric compared with 3% in 2019. It is estimated that by 2030 every second car sold in the biggest car markets- China, the USA and Europe will be powered by electricity, not fossil fuels.
The heat pump in some European countries sales doubled in the first months of 2022. All this is positive news but we are still not moving fast enough.

These changes, accelerated by the Russian invasion, are improving the world’s “clean energy transition prospects,” though it will not be enough to stay within what scientists consider safe boundaries: limiting average global temperature rise to 1.5 degree Celsius between the mid-19th century and the end of this century.
But we are making a start.

Sally Campbell

January 2023

Featured image shows Whitelee Windfarm, Eaglesham, with Arran in the background