In for the count
Scotland’s biggest population survey, the 2011 Census, takes place on Sunday 27th March. Every household will receive a questionnaire asking 13 questions about the household and up to 35 questions about each household member. Topics include work, education, national identity, ethnic background, language, health and marital status.
The once-in-a-decade survey gives a snapshot of the nation – not merely the basic number of us, but the kind of homes we live in, our state of health and the languages we speak. The information is used to plan how public services such as health, education, transport and housing are delivered. If there is any money available, that is.
In case you’re interested in the history –
We were first counted up as a population in 1801, largely because the government of the day needed to find out how many men were eligible for conscription to fight in the Napoleonic wars. They also needed a head-count of civilians, so as to estimate how much corn was needed to feed everyone. That first census showed Scotland’s population to be just under 1.6 million – around a third of today’s total.
For the first few decades, the census was run from London, but the Registration of Births, Deaths and Marriages (Scotland) Act in 1854 stated that a system of registration of events was to be established and maintained in Scotland. In the same year, William Pitt Dundas, the first Registrar General for Scotland, was appointed. From 1861 to the present day, the census in Scotland has been administratively separate from that in England and Wales. There has been a census every ten years since then, with the single exception of 1941 during the Second World War.
Scotland’s 1861 census, unlike its counterpart in England and Wales, included people such as fishermen at sea and migrants who were temporarily absent from the household on census night. It also put a shrewd finger on the question of overcrowding, as it asked how many rooms with windows there were in the house, and set this against the number of occupants. It showed that, on average, each room with a window was occupied by 1.7 people. Bearing in mind that castles and mansions were included, this spoke of a very high degree of crowding in the smaller houses. The question was repeated in successive censuses until 1951.
New questions were gradually introduced. The 1871 Census asked about unemployment and the 1881 Census was the first to include a question on the Gaelic language. The number of habitual Gaelic speakers in that year was recorded as 300,000, which strengthened the demand for more time to be allocated to the teaching of Gaelic in Scottish schools.
By 1901 the census results showed that Scotland’s population had more than doubled from 1.6 million a century earlier to 4.5 million, but by 1911 the responses showed that Scots were emigrating at twice the rate of the English. With the harsh conditions of urban overcrowding at home and the lure of North America and Empire countries abroad, the census in this year recorded the largest loss of population from migration in one decade.
Arran, in particular, had a fast-dwindling population. By good chance, a reader sends us this very timely piece on a report published nearly half a century ago, as follows.
Professor Bob Osborne is an Emeritus Professor in Public Policy at the University of Ulster. He has been a frequent visitor to Arran since 1999, and has, he says, ‘watched the development of the Voice with great interest’. He sends us this timely piece on the coming census, and reflects on a ground-breaking report compiled nearly half a century ago.
My thoughts about the value of the coming census and its importance to Arran were prompted by coming across a report called Arran 1980-81: 2021? completed 44 years ago in 1967 by two London based academics. Their report was produced for the then Arran Council for Social Services in association with the Scottish Council of Social Services. Some readers may well remember its publication and indeed may have copies of it, since it was at the time a new attempt to predict Arran’s future – but what prompted this research? Were the concerns the same then as they are now?
One thing, at least, was different. The overwhelming theme of the report is a concern about population decline and how it could be arrested. It noted that the 1961 census showed a marked drop in Arran’s population. The number of people living on the island had halved from 1821 to 3712. By 1966, things were even worse. An unofficial estimate put the population at 3143 – a fall of 8%. Also noted was the high proportion of older people amongst the population. The authors of the report tried to extrapolate from this what the population of Arran would be in 1980-81 and suggested that, if the prevailing trends continued, the island population would number something between 2021 and 2374. These calculations were then used as a call to action to prevent the slow death of the island.
Many of the strategies recommended in order to halt the decline and reinvigorate Arran had an effect that is still felt today. Prime among them was the building of a secondary school on Arran to increase ‘holding’ the younger population on the island and providing an attractive educational environment for incomers with families. The authors also suggested a development of the economy that should emphasise tourism, though their report cautioned against relying on tourism too heavily because of its seasonal nature. They noted, however, that developing a successful tourist trade would strengthen the case for infrastructure development, especially improving roads – a view that resonates strongly down the decades! Other areas to be developed included forestry and the building of a distillery. Perhaps most interestingly, the report’s authors recommended a deliberate strategy of encouraging retirees to the island. They recognised that such a policy would require new housing, and noted that this ‘should be concentrated around the main villages’. They felt that people from Glasgow in particular should be encouraged to buy ‘second’ homes, and believed there was a strong case for a ferry between Arran and Kintyre.
In some ways the report reads well in terms of developments over the last few decades. Tourism has grown to become a major source of island economic activity and has become less exclusively concentrated on the summer trade. A ferry operates to Kintyre, a distillery has opened and, perhaps most significantly, children no longer have to go to the mainland for secondary schooling. But who in the 1960s would have been able to predict the arrival of the internet, which allows businesses to set up on Arran and access markets across the globe? Those who favour the huge benefits of island life can now build an economic future ‘remotely’ and not be forced to live in major cities and towns.
From a contemporary perspective, the weakness in the report stems perhaps from the analysis of housing – both in terms of quantity and quality. In encouraging often comparatively well-off retirees to relocate to Arran and the increasing purchase of second homes, the authors do not identify a tension between this policy and the demand for new housing if younger people are to stay on the island or younger families move to Arran. As islanders are well aware, these pressures are intense, especially when retaining the scenic value of Arran for tourism prevents wholesale building of new property outside existing villages and settlements. If anyone doubts the wisdom of caution in allowing housing development, take a trip to the west of Ireland where slack planning has ruined many landscapes from Donegal to Kerry with ‘bungalow-itis’. American tourists to Ireland now write to Irish newspapers complaining of the gap between the tourist board images of Ireland and the reality they often encounter.
But what of the report’s population predictions for Arran? Well, their projection of a continuing fall in population proved accurate, with the 1971 population falling to 3564. However, the transformation came as the 1970s continued, with Arran’s population rising for the first time in 150 years to 3845 in 1981. The growth has continued with the population recorded as 4475 in 1991 and 5058 in 2001. The official estimate for 2006 was 5301. Population projections suggest this may be a peak with a minor drop to 2031.The unbalanced nature of the population in terms of age structure, however, remains, with one in three households being recorded as ‘pensioner’ households with all the attendant needs upon a variety of services.
The reality is that Arran’s actual population will not be revealed until the results of the 2011 census are known. The unbalanced structure of the population will remain and will provide a major challenge to service providers for the coming years, especially with the current pressures on local government finance.
When the census forms arrive at the end of March, many islanders may well baulk at the apparent complexity of the response sheets. But knowing what is happening on the island will strengthen the case Arran’s residents can make to service providers. The census is for everyone, not just planners and bureaucrats.
Many readers may have come to Arran themselves as part of the inducements offered in the ‘70s to people with young families to come and join the island community. If anyone would like to contribute a reminiscence about this, we’d be delighted to hear from you. Just drop us an e-mail on info@voiceforarran.com. Ed.
